Forget everything you thought you knew about home-field advantage. The Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians have spent four games proving it does not exist, and now the American League Division Series comes down to one night, one pitching rematch, and a trip to the ALCS. Game 5 is Saturday night at Progressive Field, first pitch at 8 p.m. ET, and the Tampa Bay Rays are already waiting to find out who they face on Monday.
This is only the second time in the entire Division Series round that a series has gone the distance. The Dodgers handled the Braves in four. The Brewers finished off the Padres in four. The Rays swept the Yankees in three. But the two teams from the AL Central looked at the bracket and decided they were not done with each other yet.
The road team has won every single game
Stop and think about how strange that is. The White Sox walked into Progressive Field last weekend and took the first two games of the series, including a 3-0 shutout in the opener. They looked like a team of destiny. They had swept the Houston Astros in the Wild Card round, they had won their first four postseason games, and they were one win from the ALCS.
Then the series moved to Chicago and Cleveland returned the favor. The Guardians stormed into the White Sox ballpark and won twice, 9-3 and 9-5, looking every bit like the team that won the division. Nobody has held serve. Nobody has protected their own turf. Four games, four road wins.
Tonight the series goes back to Cleveland. If the pattern holds, the White Sox are going to the ALCS and the home crowd goes home miserable. But patterns in October are made to be broken, and Cleveland is sending its best arm to the mound to break this one.
The rematch: Gavin Williams vs. Sean Burke
Saturday night is essentially a rematch of Game 2, and Game 2 was a gem. Gavin Williams started for Cleveland and struck out 11 over five innings, allowing just two runs. Sean Burke came on as the bulk reliever for Chicago, went 5 1/3 innings, allowed one hit and one run, struck out six, and got the win when the White Sox rallied for a 4-3 victory.
Williams, the 14-game winner with 248 strikeouts this season, nearly did not make this start. He came out of the bullpen for the final three outs of Game 4 on Thursday, throwing 18 pitches in the first relief appearance of his career to seal the 9-5 win. Manager Stephen Vogt said Williams, known as “The Big Rig,” earned the right to make the call himself. Williams walked off the field and said the body felt good. So here he is, starting a winner-take-all game roughly 48 hours after saving one.
Burke has his own story, and it is the one that should worry Cleveland. He is 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA against the Guardians this season over 22 2/3 innings. He has won in Cleveland in his last two matchups there, giving up one earned run in 10 1/3 frames. Put simply, this is a pitcher who walks into Progressive Field and owns the place. That is not a small thing on a night like this.
The oddsmakers still like the home team. Cleveland is a minus 139 favorite with the total set at 7 runs. But the number that matters most might be the simplest one: the road team is 4-0 in this series.
How a series goes from 2-0 to 2-2
The White Sox dominated the first two games in Cleveland with pitching. Games 1 and 2 were tight, low-scoring, professional wins. Then Game 3 happened, and it was a statement. Cleveland’s pitchers struck out 19 White Sox batters, a single-game record for a nine-inning postseason game. Jose Ramirez collected his first two hits of the series and drove in two. Jo Adell launched a three-run triple. The 9-3 final was not as close as the score made it look.
Game 4 was even louder. Cleveland fell behind, then detonated for a six-run sixth inning that turned the game and the series. Ramirez was the hero again. The Guardians needed eight pitchers to finish the job, which is the one real concern hanging over tonight: their bullpen is taxed. But Williams stepping up to close Game 4, on what was supposed to be his side-session day, told you everything about how this team operates in October.
For the White Sox, the worry is the same in the mirror image. Manager Will Venable leaned on bullpen games through much of the postseason, and Chicago has allowed nine runs in each of the last two losses. Tonight they go with a traditional starter in Burke, and they need him to go deep.
What is on the line
The winner plays the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League Championship Series, with Game 1 set for Monday at 8:08 p.m. ET on TBS. The Rays, who swept the Yankees 3-0 in their Division Series, have been sitting and waiting while these two beat each other up. Rest is nice. Momentum is better. Ask either clubhouse which they prefer and the answer will not be close.
For the White Sox, this is about finishing the most improbable season in recent baseball memory. They already earned their first playoff series win since 2005, when they won the World Series, by sweeping the Astros in the Wild Card round. An ALCS berth would be their first since that championship season. They were 84-78 in the regular year. Nobody had them here.
For Cleveland, the AL Central champions at 85-77, this is about a team that keeps finding another gear. They have won 54 of the games this year in which they scored at least five runs. They lead this season’s head-to-head against Chicago by the slimmest of margins, with the White Sox up 9-8 through 17 meetings. Saturday makes 18. There is no 19th. Win or go home.
Three things that will decide it
- Which bullpen bends first. Both staffs are running on fumes after the slugfests in Chicago. The starters need length. If Burke or Williams gets chased early, it becomes a battle of relievers who have already thrown too much, and that is where October games get truly chaotic.
- The first time through the order. Williams struck out 11 White Sox last time. Burke has a 1.19 ERA against Cleveland this year. Both pitchers have shown they can dominate this lineup. The team that scratches a run across early, just to remind the other side that runs are allowed, changes the whole temperature of the night.
- The road magic. It sounds silly until you look at the scoreboard. Four games, four road wins. Chicago won twice in Cleveland already. Cleveland won twice in Chicago. Progressive Field will be shaking tonight, and the White Sox have already proven they do not care.
How to watch
White Sox vs. Guardians, ALDS Game 5, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The winner moves on to face the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS starting Monday. The National League side is already set, with the Dodgers and Brewers meeting in the NLCS starting Sunday.
One game. Nine innings. Everything on the line. This is what October is for.
